Why Is This US Shutdown Distinct (and More Intractable)?
Shutdowns have become a recurring element in American political life – however the current situation appears particularly intractable because of political dynamics and bad blood among both major parties.
Some government services are temporarily suspended, with approximately 750,000 employees are expected to be put on furlough without pay since both political parties remain unable to reach consensus on a spending bill.
Legislative attempts to resolve the impasse have repeatedly failed, and it is hard to see an off-ramp in this instance as each side – as well as the President – perceive advantages in maintaining their positions.
These are the four ways in which this shutdown distinct currently.
First, For Democrats, the focus is on Trump – beyond healthcare issues
The Democratic base have insisted over recent periods that their party adopt stronger opposition against the current presidency. Well now Democratic leaders has a chance to show they have listened.
In March, Senate leader faced strong criticism for helping pass a Republican spending bill thus preventing a shutdown in the spring. This time he's digging in.
This presents an opportunity for the Democratic party to show their ability to reclaim certain authority from a presidency pursuing its agenda assertively with determined action.
Opposing the Republican spending plan comes with political risk as citizens generally will grow frustrated with prolonged negotiations and impacts accumulate.
Democratic representatives are leveraging the shutdown fight to highlight concerns about ending healthcare financial support and Republican-approved federal health program reductions affecting low-income populations, both facing public opposition.
They are also trying to restrict the President's use of presidential authority to rescind or withhold money authorized legislatively, which he has done with foreign aid and various federal programs.
Second, For Republicans, they see potential
The President and one of his key officials have openly indicated their perspective that they smell a chance to advance further reductions in government employment implemented during in the Republican's second presidency so far.
The nation's leader personally said last week that the shutdown provided him with a "unique chance", adding he intended to reduce funding for "opposition-supported departments".
Administration officials stated they would face the "unenviable task" involving significant workforce reductions to maintain critical federal operations if the shutdown continued. The Press Secretary said this was just "fiscal sanity".
The scope of the potential lay-offs remains unclear, though administration officials have been consulting with the Office of Management and Budget, the budgeting office, which is headed by the key official.
The administration's financial chief has previously declared the halting of government financial support for Democratic-run parts of the country, including New York City and Illinois' largest city.
Third, Trust Is Lacking on either side
While previous shutdowns typically involved late-night talks between the two parties aimed at restoring federal operations, there appears to be little of the same spirit of collaboration this time.
Instead, animosity prevails. The bad blood persisted recently, with Republicans and Democrats blaming each other regarding the deadlock's origin.
House Speaker from the majority party, accused Democrats of not being serious toward resolution, and holding out during discussions "for electoral protection".
Meanwhile, the opposition's chief made similar charges at the other side, stating how a majority party commitment to discuss healthcare subsidies after operations resume can not be taken seriously.
The President himself has inflamed the situation by posting a controversial AI-generated image of the Senate leader along with another senior in the House, where the representative is depicted with traditional headwear and a moustache.
The affected legislator with party colleagues called this racist, which was denied by the Vice-President.
4. The US economy faces vulnerability
Analysts expect about 40% of government employees – more than 800,000 people – to face furlough as a result of the government closure.
This will reduce consumer expenditure – with broader economic consequences, including halted environmental approvals, delayed intellectual property processing, payments to contractors and other kinds of federal operations tied to business comes to a halt.
The closure additionally introduces fresh instability into an economy currently experiencing disruption from multiple factors including trade measures, previous budget reductions, enforcement actions and technological advancements.
Economic forecasters project that it could shave as much as 0.2 percentage points from national economic expansion for each week it lasts.
But the economy typically recoups most of that lost activity after a shutdown ends, similar to recovery patterns caused by a natural disaster.
That could be one reason why the stock market has appeared largely unfazed to the ongoing impasse.
Conversely, experts indicate that if the President carries out proposed significant workforce reductions, the damage could be extended in duration.